Alliance for Pandemic Preparedness

October 27, 2020

Effect of Timing of and Adherence to Social Distancing Measures on COVID-19 Burden in the United States

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An agent-based model applied to New York City (NYC), Milwaukee metro area, and Dane County, WI shows that the timing of and adherence to social distancing measures could have major effects on COVID-19 occurrence. Implementing measures in NYC 1 week earlier would have reduced the number of cases by 80%, while a 1-week delay in implementation would increase cases by almost 7-fold. In comparing Milwaukee and Dane County (both of which are in Wisconsin), a differential effect on timing of measures was observed in part due to differences in adherence to social distancing practices.

Alagoz et al. (Oct 27, 2020). Effect of Timing of and Adherence to Social Distancing Measures on COVID-19 Burden in the United States. Annals of Internal Medicine. https://doi.org/10.7326/M20-4096