COVID-19 LITERATURE SITUATION REPORT OCT. 29, 2020

• Analysis of mobile phone data in France showed that the March lockdown was effective in reducing population mobility, reducing countrywide displacements from 57 to approximately 20 million trips per day (65% reduction). Mobility drops were strongly associated with regions with active populations, workers employed in sectors highly affected by the lockdown, and hospitalizations. However, anomalous increases in long-range movements were identified before lockdowns were announced, and authors suggest these may act as seeding events if caution is not taken in timing the announcement of lockdowns.

Pullano et al. (Oct 28, 2020). Evaluating the Effect of Demographic Factors, Socioeconomic Factors, and Risk Aversion on Mobility during the COVID-19 Epidemic in France under Lockdown: A Population-Based Study. The Lancet Digital Health. https://doi.org/10.1016/S2589-7500(20)30243-0

• [Pre-print, not peer reviewed] A mathematical model found that a 13-day quarantine with testing on entry, a 9-day quarantine with testing on exit, and an 8-day quarantine with testing on entry and exit all provide equivalent or lower probability of post-quarantine transmission compared to a 14-day quarantine with no testing. When limited to a single test, testing on day six or seven was optimal regardless of quarantine length.

Wells et al. (Oct 28, 2020). Optimal COVID-19 Quarantine and Testing Strategies. Pre-print downloaded Oct 29 from https://doi.org/10.1101/2020.10.27.20211631

• Investigation of a SARS-CoV-2 outbreak associated with an overnight high-school retreat suggests a single introduction from a student subsequently infected 76% (116) of attendees. The suspected index case received a negative PCR result 1 week prior to the retreat but experienced symptoms shortly after arrival. The attack rate among susceptible attendees was 91% (116 of 128), excluding 24 attendees with positive serologic results prior to the retreat (none of whom received positive PCR results at the retreat). All illnesses were mild to moderate, with no hospitalizations or deaths.

Pray et al. (Oct 30, 2020). COVID-19 Outbreak at an Overnight Summer School Retreat ― Wisconsin, July–August 2020. MMWR. Morbidity and Mortality Weekly Report. https://doi.org/10.15585/mmwr.mm6943a4

• [Pre-print, not peer reviewed] Phylogenetic analysis found that a SARS-CoV-2 variant has emerged in Spain since mid-July with a frequency over 40%. Sequences in this cluster differ from ancestral sequences at 6 or more positions. The variant spread to multiple European countries, with frequencies increasing from low values prior to mid-July to 40-70% in Switzerland, Ireland, and the UK by September. It has also been seen in Norway, Latvia, the Netherlands and France. Despite widespread geographic transmission, no data has suggested whether this variant has a transmission advantage or affects COVID-19 severity.

Hodcroft et al. (Oct 28, 2020). Emergence and Spread of a SARS-CoV-2 Variant through Europe in the Summer of 2020. Pre-print downloaded Oct 29 from https://doi.org/10.1101/2020.10.25.20219063

• Use of inhaled corticosteroids (ICS) among patients with COPD or asthma was not associated with a COVID-19 diagnosis in a nationwide study conducted in Korea. In a nested case control study among patients with COPD with 640 COVID-19 cases and 2560 matched controls without COVID-19, ICS use was not associated with COVID-19 (aOR=1.02, 95% CI, 0.46-2.25). A similar analysis among patients with asthma (90 COVID-19 cases matched with 360 controls) also did not detect an association between ICS use and COVID-19 diagnosis (aOR=0.38, 95% CI=0.13-1.17).

Choi et al. (Oct 23, 2020). Inhaled Corticosteroids and COVID-19 Risk and Mortality: A Nationwide Cohort Study. Journal of Clinical Medicine. https://doi.org/10.3390/jcm9113406

• Analysis of a serology dataset from patients admitted to a New York City hospital with confirmed or suspected SARS-CoV-2 infection (n=30,082) showed that the vast majority of individuals (~92%) had moderate-to-high titers (> 1:320) of anti-spike antibodies with 90% of seroconverters making detectable neutralizing antibodies. Additionally, antibody titers from a cohort of 121 plasma donors were found to be stable over at least 3 months, with modest declines at 5 months.

Wajnberg et al. (Oct 28, 2020). Robust Neutralizing Antibodies to SARS-CoV-2 Infection Persist for Months. Science. https://doi.org/10.1126/science.abd7728

• An observational study among 420 recovered COVID-19 patients in Wuhan, China suggests that recurrence rates (based on RT-PCR tests) may be lower among patients receiving a comprehensive intervention. The intervention consisted of a combination of treatments including Baduanjin execise, Chinese herbal medicine, moxibustion with acupoint application, and foot baths. Recurrence positivity rates were significantly lower among those who received the intervention (2.8%) vs. among those who did not (15.8%).

He et al. (Oct 7, 2020). Positive RT-PCR Test Results in 420 Patients Recovered From COVID-19 in Wuhan: An Observational Study. Frontiers in Pharmacology. https://doi.org/10.3389/fphar.2020.549117

• A phase 2 randomized placebo-controlled trial (n=452) interim analysis found that patients who received a 2800mg dose of monoclonal antibody LY-CoV555 could reduce SARS-CoV-2 log viral load by 3.4-fold after 11 days compared to patients receiving placebo, corresponding to a 0.53 log viral load reduction (95% CI: -0.98 to -0.08). Other patients receiving a 700mg dose (n=101) or a 7000mg dose (n=101) experienced smaller differences.

Chen et al. (Oct 28, 2020). SARS-CoV-2 Neutralizing Antibody LY-CoV555 in Outpatients with Covid-19. New England Journal of Medicine. https://doi.org/10.1056/NEJMoa2029849

• A nationwide cohort study in Scotland (n=158,445) found that despite low absolute risk, patient facing healthcare workers and their household members had a higher relative risk of hospital admission due to COVID-19 compared to non-patient facing healthcare workers and their household members. Risk of COVID-19-related hospital admission was 3-fold higher among patient facing healthcare workers and nearly two-fold higher among their household members compared to their non-patient facing counterparts. Among patient facing healthcare workers, risk was further elevated among those who worked in “front door” roles.

Shah et al. (Oct 28, 2020). Risk of Hospital Admission with Coronavirus Disease 2019 in Healthcare Workers and Their Households: Nationwide Linkage Cohort Study. BMJ. https://doi.org/10.1136/bmj.m3582

• A cross-sectional study of 11,470 nursing homes found that private equity (PE) owned nursing homes performed comparably on resident COVID-19 cases and deaths despite more frequent shortages of PPE in PE-owned vs. other types of nursing homes. No statistically significant differences in COVID-19 cases, COVID-19 deaths, nor deaths from all causes were detected between PE-owned vs. for-profit and nonprofit facilities, or government-owned facilities.
• Compared to PE-owned nursing homes, for-profit, nonprofit, and government-owned nursing homes were 10.5%, 15%, and 17% more likely to have at least a 1-week supply of N95 masks, and 24.3%, 30.7%, and 29.2% more likely to have at least a 1 -week supply of medical gowns, respectively.

Braun et al. (Oct 28, 2020). Comparative Performance of Private Equity–Owned US Nursing Homes During the COVID-19 Pandemic. JAMA Network Open. https://doi.org/10.1001/jamanetworkopen.2020.26702

• COVID-19 case rates among detainees in US Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) facilities increased every month from April to August, with increases only partially explained by increased testing. ICE facilities reported 5379 cumulative COVID-19 cases and 6 deaths among its detainees through August 2020. Twenty facilities (of 135) accounted for 71% of cases. The monthly COVID-19 case rate increased from 1527 to 6683 per 100,000 detainees between April and August. Compared with the US population, the mean monthly case ratio for detainees was 13.4 (95% CI 8.0-18.9) and the mean monthly test rate ratio was 4.6 (95% CI 2.5-6.7), both indicative of higher cases and testing among detainees.

Erfani et al. (Oct 29, 2020). COVID-19 Testing and Cases in Immigration Detention Centers, April-August 2020. JAMA. https://doi.org/10.1001/jama.2020.21473

• Analysis of a 14-country dataset suggests that people place stronger attention on their government’s response performance, measured by the number of confirmed COVID-19 cases and deaths, rather than containment and health policies that are initiated. Satisfaction in the government response ranged from 46% and 47% in the UK and US, respectively, to 94% and 95% in Australia and Denmark, respectively. The regression model also found that health policy and economic support affect satisfaction to government response, albeit less significantly than the number of cases and deaths.

Chen et al. (Oct 25, 2020). What Factors Drive the Satisfaction of Citizens on Governments’ Responses to COVID-19? International Journal of Infectious Diseases. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ijid.2020.10.050