Alliance for Pandemic Preparedness

October 30, 2020

Projected COVID-19 Epidemic in the United States in the Context of the Effectiveness of a Potential Vaccine and Implications for Social Distancing and Face Mask Use

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  • [Pre-print, not peer-reviewed] Findings from a study using a dynamic compartmental model of COVID-19 transmission for the four most severely affected states (New York, Texas, Florida, and California) indicated that in the absence of a vaccine, SARS-CoV-2 transmission could be slowed in these states by adherence to strict social distancing guidelines and widespread face mask use. Without such preventive measures, 0.8-4 million infections and 15,000-240,000 deaths were projected across the four states over the next 12 months. The study also evaluated varying levels of vaccine efficacy and face mask use that would be required to suppress the epidemic, and the authors concluded that the efficacy of a future vaccine will largely determine the degree to which the US can relax social distancing and mask requirements.

Shen et al. (Oct 30, 2020). Projected COVID-19 Epidemic in the United States in the Context of the Effectiveness of a Potential Vaccine and Implications for Social Distancing and Face Mask Use. Pre-print downloaded Oct 30 from https://doi.org/10.1101/2020.10.28.20221234