Alliance for Pandemic Preparedness

November 16, 2020

Epidemiological Impact of SARS-CoV-2 Vaccination: Mathematical Modeling Analyses

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A modeling study that tested scenarios with varying levels of SARS-CoV-2 vaccine efficacy found that a vaccine with prophylactic efficacy of ≥70% could eliminate infection and prevent major outbreaks in scenarios where 80% of the population receives the vaccine. A vaccine with a lower efficacy could still control infection in a scenario with additional reduction in contacts. If the vaccine efficacy were 50%, 2.4 people would need to be vaccinated to prevent one new infection, 25.5 to avoid one case of severe disease, 32.2 to avoid one case of critical disease, and 65.1 to avoid one death. The authors also note that vaccinated individuals increasing their social contacts might lessen the impact of a vaccine. The model scenarios reflect the epidemiology of SARS-CoV-2 in China.

Makhoul et al. (Nov 9, 2020). Epidemiological Impact of SARS-CoV-2 Vaccination: Mathematical Modeling Analyses. Vaccines. https://doi.org/10.3390/vaccines8040668