November 23, 2020
The Potential Impact of School Closure Relative to Community-Based Non-Pharmaceutical Interventions on COVID-19 Cases in Ontario Canada
Category: Article Summary
Topic: Modeling and Prediction
Keywords (Tags): modeling, schools
[Preprint, not peer-reviewed] A modeling study based on a scenario of one million individuals in Ontario, Canada predicted that school reopening would result in a small change in COVID-19 case numbers among students and teachers in a setting with community-based prevention measures. The model showed that the increase was driven mostly by acquisition in the community, and fewer than 5% of infections among students and teachers were acquired within schools. It also indicated that implementation of community-based prevention measures would reduce 39,355 COVID-19 incident cases by October 31, 2020, while school closure vs. reopening on September 15 would reduce 2,040 cases.
Naimark et al. (Nov 21, 2020). The Potential Impact of School Closure Relative to Community-Based Non-Pharmaceutical Interventions on COVID-19 Cases in Ontario Canada. Pre-print downloaded Nov 23 from https://doi.org/10.1101/2020.11.18.20234351