November 30, 2020

A Novel COVID-19 Epidemiological Model with Explicit Susceptible and Asymptomatic Isolation Compartments Reveals Unexpected Consequences of Timing Social Distancing

Category: Article Summary

Topic: Clinical Characteristics and Health Care Setting

Keywords (Tags): modeling prediction

A modeling study of social distancing mandates on SARS-CoV-2 population dynamics indicated that slight delays in implementing social distance protocols did not have a strong effect on the epidemic curve, but did identify a critical window of approximately two weeks in which to implement a mandate to avoid a substantially larger increase in incidence. The model used separate compartments for susceptible and asymptomatic infectious individuals with different social distancing practices. In scenarios testing strategies to relax social distancing mandates, sudden reopening potentially negated initial gains made to prevent infections under distancing requirements. 

Gevertz et al. (Nov 2020). A Novel COVID-19 Epidemiological Model with Explicit Susceptible and Asymptomatic Isolation Compartments Reveals Unexpected Consequences of Timing Social Distancing. Journal of Theoretical Biology. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jtbi.2020.110539