Alliance for Pandemic Preparedness

November 30, 2020

Estimated Incidence of COVID-19 Illness and Hospitalization — United States, February–September, 2020

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A simple probabilistic multiplier model estimating the societal and healthcare burdens of SARS-CoV-2 infections indicated that 2.4 million hospitalizations, 44.8 million symptomatic illnesses, and 52.9 million total infections may have occurred in the U.S. during February 27–September 30, 2020. Laboratory-confirmed infections that were reported were adjusted for potential under-detection based on testing practices and assay sensitivity. The authors estimated that through the end of September, only 1 of every 2.5 hospitalized infections and 1 of every 7.1 non-hospitalized illnesses may have been reported. They adjusted for potential under-detection by applying testing practices and assay sensitivity multipliers to the number of laboratory-confirmed reported infections.

Reese et al. (Nov 25, 2020). Estimated Incidence of COVID-19 Illness and Hospitalization — United States, February–September, 2020. Clinical Infectious Diseases. https://doi.org/10.1093/cid/ciaa1780