Alliance for Pandemic Preparedness

December 4, 2020

Positive Impact of Facility-Based Isolation of Mild COVID-19 Cases on Effectively Curbing the Pandemic: A Mathematical Modelling Study

Category:

Topic:

Keywords (Tags): ,

  • A compartmental model simulating SARS-CoV-2 transmission dynamics projected that a facility-based isolation strategy with moderate capacity (5 beds per 10,000 total population) could avert 4.2 million new infections and 16,000 deaths in two months compared with home-based isolation, equivalent to relative reductions of 57% of new infections and 37% of deaths. Doubling bed capacity resulted in a 76% reduction in new infections and 52% reduction in deaths when supported by expanded testing with a 20% daily diagnosis rate. Efficacy of this intervention was dependent upon local epidemic burden.

Chen et al. (Dec 3, 2020). Positive Impact of Facility-Based Isolation of Mild COVID-19 Cases on Effectively Curbing the Pandemic: A Mathematical Modelling Study. Journal of Travel Medicine. https://doi.org/10.1093/jtm/taaa2264