December 15, 2020

Individual and Community-Level Risk for COVID-19 Mortality in the United States

Category: Article Summary

Topic: Modeling and Prediction

Keywords (Tags): candidate, modeling prediction, report, summarize

Jin et al. developed a model to produce absolute risk estimates for the general adult population across 477 US cities and for the Medicare population aged 65 years and older across 3,113 counties. Incorporating various sociodemographic factors and pre-existing conditions and validated with 54,444 deaths due to COVID-19 from June to October 2020, the model can identify small fractions of the population that could experience a disproportionately large number of deaths. The model, which shows wide variations in risks across communities, is available as a web-based risk calculator with interactive maps.

Jin et al. (Dec 11, 2020). Individual and Community-Level Risk for COVID-19 Mortality in the United States. Nature Medicine. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41591-020-01191-8