December 15, 2020

Vaccines That Prevent SARS-CoV-2 Transmission May Prevent or Dampen a Spring Wave of COVID-19 Cases and Deaths in 2021

Category: Article Summary

Topic: Modeling and Prediction

Keywords (Tags): candidate, modeling prediction, public health policy, report, summarize

[Pre-print, not peer-reviewed] A model based on King County data shows that if the vaccine efficacy of the Moderna and Pfizer vaccines are primarily driven by complete protection against infection, then prevention of a fourth epidemic wave in Spring 2021 and a reduction of subsequent cases and deaths by 60% is likely to occur, assuming rapid vaccine rollout (at least 5,000 vaccinations per day). If vaccine efficacy is primarily driven by a reduction of symptoms despite breakthrough infection, then vaccination would need to be combined with other transmission control measures that prevent at least 50% of secondary infections in order to prevent a fourth wave.

Swan et al. (Dec 14, 2020). Vaccines That Prevent SARS-CoV-2 Transmission May Prevent or Dampen a Spring Wave of COVID-19 Cases and Deaths in 2021. Pre-print downloaded Dec 15 from https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.12.13.20248120v1