Alliance for Pandemic Preparedness

December 17, 2020

Quantifying the Importance and Location of SARS-CoV-2 Transmission Events in Large Metropolitan Areas

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  • [Pre-print, not peer reviewed] An agent-based model simulating the New York City and Seattle metropolitan areas from February to June 2020 found 80% of infections were produced by 27% of people, and 10% of events were super-spreading events (SSE). The model found most infections occurred in community and workplace settings prior to NPIs, whereas households were locations for the majority of infections after NPIs were implemented; however notable differences in the location of transmission and SSEs over the course of the pandemic and across cities suggests behavioral factors underly the setting where transmissions are most likely to occur.

Aleta et al. (Dec 17, 2020). Quantifying the Importance and Location of SARS-CoV-2 Transmission Events in Large Metropolitan Areas. Pre-print downloaded Dec 17 from https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.12.15.20248273v1