Alliance for Pandemic Preparedness

December 30, 2020

COVID-19 LITERATURE SITUATION REPORT DEC. 30, 2020

Category:

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The scientific literature on COVID-19 is rapidly evolving and these articles were selected for review based on their relevance to Washington State decision making around COVID-19 response efforts. Included in these Lit Reps are some manuscripts that have been made available online as pre-prints but have not yet undergone peer review. Please be aware of this when reviewing articles included in the Lit Reps.

We will distribute the Lit Rep on Mondays and Wednesdays between December 21 and January 1. Happy holidays.

Today’s summary is based on a review of 1243 articles (1215 published, 28 in preprint)

Key Takeaways

  • A nationally representative longitudinal survey (n=8,167) found that self-reported likelihood of getting a COVID-19 vaccine declined from 74% in early April to 56% in early December. Significant declines in the likelihood of vaccine uptake were observed in all gender, age, racial/ethnic, and education subgroups. More 
  • Healthcare workers with no prior SARS-CoV-2 infection were more likely than those with a confirmed infection during the first wave to present for symptomatic testing (21% vs 12%) and were more likely to test positive (14% vs 0%) during the second wave of the pandemic 6 months later. More
  • Individuals who purchased a firearm during the COVID-19 pandemic more frequently endorsed suicidal ideation when compared to individuals who do not own firearms or purchased firearms prior to the pandemic. More

Article Summaries

Non-Pharmaceutical Interventions

Can Face Masks Offer Protection from Airborne Sneeze and Cough Droplets in Close-up, Face-to-Face Human Interactions?—A Quantitative Study

With the exception of N95 masks, face coverings would not offer complete protection for a susceptible person exposed to coughing or sneezing of an infected person within 6 feet according to droplet flow visualization experiments. While no potentially virus-carrying particles were observed to leak through N95 masks when worn as protection, enough particles were found to leak through other face coverings, such as surgical and double-layer cloth masks, to expose the wearer to a sufficiently infectious dose.

Akhtar et al. (Dec 22, 2020). Can Face Masks Offer Protection from Airborne Sneeze and Cough Droplets in Close-up, Face-to-Face Human Interactions?—A Quantitative Study. Physics of Fluids. https://doi.org/10.1063/5.0035072

Testing and Treatment

Field Performance and Public Health Response Using the BinaxNOW Rapid SARS-CoV-2 Antigen Detection Assay during Community-Based Testing

Among 3,302 persons tested for SARS-CoV-2 by BinaxNOW Rapid SARS-CoV-2 antigen detection assay in a community setting with 7.2% prevalence, rapid assay sensitivity was 100%, 98.5%, and 89% using RT-PCR Ct thresholds of 30, 35 and none, respectively. The assay maintained high sensitivity performance across ages and those with and without symptoms. Assay specificity was 99.9%. The median time from on-site registration to electronic results notification of a positive rapid antigen test was 62 minutes (IQR: 47-82 minutes).

Pilarowski et al. (Dec 26, 2020). Field Performance and Public Health Response Using the BinaxNOW Rapid SARS-CoV-2 Antigen Detection Assay during Community-Based Testing. Clinical Infectious Diseases. https://doi.org/10.1093/cid/ciaa1890 

Vaccines and Immunity

National Trends in the US Public’s Likelihood of Getting a COVID-19 Vaccine—April 1 to December 8, 2020

A nationally representative longitudinal survey (n=8,167) found that self-reported likelihood of getting a COVID-19 vaccine declined from 74% in early April to 56% in early December. Declines were observed in likelihood of vaccine uptake for both women and men and in all age, racial/ethnic, and education subgroups. As of December, the self-reported likelihood of vaccine uptake was lower among women than men (51% vs 62%) and Black than white individuals (38% vs 59%). Likelihood of vaccine uptake was higher among adults aged ≥65 years than those 18-49 years (69% vs 51%), and among individuals with at least a bachelor’s degree compared to those with a high school education or less (70% vs 48%).

Szilagyi et al. (Dec 29, 2020). National Trends in the US Public’s Likelihood of Getting a COVID-19 Vaccine—April 1 to December 8, 2020. JAMA. https://doi.org/10.1001/jama.2020.26419 

Prior SARS-CoV-2 Infection Is Associated with Protection against Symptomatic Reinfection

In a retrospective cohort study of healthcare workers (HCW) (n=17,126) in the UK, HCW without confirmed SARS-CoV-2 infection (negative PCR and serology) during the first wave experienced higher rates of symptomatic testing and PCR test positivity rates in the second wave 6 months later than HCW with confirmed SARS-CoV-2 infection during the first wave. Only 12.3% of HCW with previous infection presented for symptomatic testing, compared to 20.8% of HCW without previous infection. No positive PCR tests were returned among HCW with previous infection, whereas HCW with no previous infection had a 13.7% test positivity rate.

Hanrath et al. (Dec 26, 2020). Prior SARS-CoV-2 Infection Is Associated with Protection against Symptomatic Reinfection. Journal of Infection. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jinf.2020.12.023 

Clinical Characteristics and Health Care Setting

COVID‐19 Infection Prevention and Control Adherence in Long‐term Care Facilities, Atlanta, Georgia

Long-term care facilities (LTCF) with greater implementation of infection prevention and control (IPC) had a lower prevalence of COVID-19, according to analysis of 24 facilities in Fulton County, GA. Specifically, significant differences were observed in prevalence of implementation of IPCs belonging to the social distancing category (high prevalence LTCF, 54% vs low prevalence LTCFs, 74%) and to the personal protective equipment category (high prevalence LTCF, 41% vs low prevalence LTCFs, 72%). Overall prevalence of COVID-19 in the facilities analyzed was 39%.  

Telford et al. (Dec 28, 2020). COVID‐19 Infection Prevention and Control Adherence in Long‐term Care Facilities, Atlanta, Georgia. Journal of the American Geriatrics Society. https://doi.org/10.1111/jgs.17001 

Previous Dengue Infection and Mortality in COVID-19

In a prospective study of 2,351 people with COVID-19 SARS in Brazil, those with previous symptomatic dengue (n=1177) had a lower risk of death after a median follow-up of 60 days (adjusted HR = 0.44). History of other previous infections, including malaria, Zika, and chikungunya, were not associated with mortality. The authors suggest that dengue might induce a degree of immunological protection against SARS-CoV-2 infection.

Silvestre et al. (Dec 29, 2020). Previous Dengue Infection and Mortality in COVID-19. Clinical Infectious Diseases. https://doi.org/10.1093/cid/ciaa1895 

Immune Deficiency Is a Risk Factor for Severe COVID‐19 in People Living with HIV

Among 175 people living with HIV in the UK, US, and Spain, a current CD4 T-cell count of <350 cells/µL was independently associated with a 2.85-fold risk for developing severe COVID-19. A lower nadir CD4 T-cell count of <200 cells/µL was associated with mortality. No significant differences in risk of severe or critical COVID-19 were detected by gender, ethnicity, obesity, detectable HIV RNA, prior AIDS‐defining illness, tenofovir, or protease inhibitor use in the current antiretroviral treatment.

Hoffmann et al. (Dec 27, 2020). Immune Deficiency Is a Risk Factor for Severe COVID‐19 in People Living with HIV. HIV Medicine. https://doi.org/10.1111/hiv.13037 

Mental Health and Personal Impact

Factors Associated with Psychological Distress during the Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) Pandemic on the Predominantly General Population: A Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis

A meta-analysis found the prevalence of pandemic-associated anxiety and depression was 33% and 30%, respectively. In an analysis of 68 studies comprising 288,830 participants from 19 countries, women, younger adults (<35 years), those living in rural areas, and those with lower socioeconomic status had higher odds of experiencing anxiety. All factors except residential area were also associated with higher odds of depression. In addition, those with higher COVID-19 infection risk (living in hotspots, having pre-existing conditions) and longer media exposure had a higher odds of anxiety and depression.

Wang et al. (Dec 28, 2020). Factors Associated with Psychological Distress during the Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) Pandemic on the Predominantly General Population: A Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis. PLOS ONE. https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0244630

Suicidal Ideation Among Individuals Who Have Purchased Firearms During COVID-19

Individuals who purchased a firearm during the COVID-19 pandemic more frequently reported suicidal ideation than individuals who do not own firearms or purchased firearms prior to the pandemic in a quota-sampled cross-sectional survey (n=3,500). Regardless of suicidal ideation, safety and protection at home were the most frequently endorsed reasons for firearm acquisition.

Anestis et al. (Nov 16, 2020). Suicidal Ideation Among Individuals Who Have Purchased Firearms During COVID-19. American Journal of Preventive Medicine. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.amepre.2020.10.013 

Preliminary Investigation of the Association between COVID-19 and Suicidal Thoughts and Behaviors in the U.S. Journal of Psychiatric Research

In a cross-sectional online survey of an Amazon Mechanical Turk sample (n=907), nearly half of participants endorsing general past-month suicidal ideation reported their thoughts were linked to COVID-19. Physical safety concerns and general distress due to COVID-19 were significantly associated with general past-month suicidal ideation. A small proportion (7%) reported intentionally exposing themselves to COVID-19 with suicidal intent.

Ammerman et al. (Dec 15, 2020). Preliminary Investigation of the Association between COVID-19 and Suicidal Thoughts and Behaviors in the U.S. Journal of Psychiatric Research. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jpsychires.2020.12.037

Modeling and Prediction

Chopping the Tail: How Preventing Superspreading Can Help to Maintain COVID-19 Control

Interventions that specifically target superspreading events while partially relaxing social distancing could be a viable alternative to blanket policies, according to a transmission model incorporating a variety of non-pharmaceutical interventions parametrized to a variety of settings. Removing the top 1% of individual transmission rates (essentially, superspreading events that connect a single infectious person to large numbers of people) with 75% efficiency could suppress epidemic growth.

Kain et al. (Dec 21, 2020). Chopping the Tail: How Preventing Superspreading Can Help to Maintain COVID-19 Control. Epidemics. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.epidem.2020.100430 

Public Health Policy and Practice

Patient Characteristics Associated With Telemedicine Access for Primary and Specialty Ambulatory Care During the COVID-19 Pandemic

Patients scheduled for telemedicine visits who were older, Asian, non-English-speaking and on Medicaid had lower uptake of telemedicine visits during the early phase of the pandemic in a retrospective cohort study of 148,402 patients in Pennsylvania. Patients who were older, female, Black, Latinx, and those with income <$50,000 had less video use. No significant differences were found across medical specialties.

Eberly et al. (Dec 29, 2020). Patient Characteristics Associated With Telemedicine Access for Primary and Specialty Ambulatory Care During the COVID-19 Pandemic. JAMA Network Open. https://doi.org/10.1001/jamanetworkopen.2020.31640 

Association of Substance Use Disorders and Drug Overdose with Adverse COVID-19 Outcomes in New York City: January–October 2020

A history of substance use disorder (SUD) and drug overdose is a risk factor for adverse outcomes in patients diagnosed with COVID-19 in New York City. In a retrospective review of the medical records from 188,653 patients diagnosed with COVID in the NYU system, both SUD and drug overdose were associated with hospitalization, ICU admission, and death. Specifically, alcohol use disorder was associated with a 6.7-fold risk for hospitalization, overdose with a 5-fold risk for ICU admission, and overdose with a 3-fold risk for death.

Allen et al. (Dec 26, 2020). Association of Substance Use Disorders and Drug Overdose with Adverse COVID-19 Outcomes in New York City: January–October 2020. Journal of Public Health. https://doi.org/10.1093/pubmed/fdaa241 

Other Resources and Commentaries

Report prepared by the UW Alliance for Pandemic Preparedness and the START Center in collaboration with and on behalf of WA DOH COVID-19 Incident Management Team.

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COVID-19 LITERATURE SITUATION REPORT DEC. 30, 2020