Alliance for Pandemic Preparedness

January 5, 2021

How Vaccination and Contact Isolation Might Interact to Suppress Transmission of Covid-19 a DCM Study

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[Pre-print, not peer reviewed] A dynamic causal model parametrized to the UK population suggests that 15 million people (roughly 50,000 per day) would need to be vaccinated by December 2021 and combined with enhanced contact tracing to achieve a 50% herd immunity threshold. With current rates of contact tracing, 24 million people (36% of the population) would need to be vaccinated to achieve an effective herd immunity of 64%, which was estimated to be necessary to achieve suppression. Without any vaccination, the model predicts a tertiary wave occurring in winter 2021.

Friston et al. (Jan 4, 2021). How Vaccination and Contact Isolation Might Interact to Suppress Transmission of Covid-19 a DCM Study. Pre-print downloaded Jan 5 from https://doi.org/10.1101/2021.01.03.20248972