Alliance for Pandemic Preparedness

January 5, 2021

Validity of the National Health Security Preparedness Index as a Predictor of Excess COVID-19 Mortality

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A tool developed by the Center for Disease Control to measure the United States capacity for responding to public health emergencies (the National Health Security Preparedness Index (NHSPI)) poorly predicted excess COVID-19 mortality rates during the first 6 months of the pandemic. State- and territorial-level excess mortality rates for all 50 states and Puerto Rico was poorly correlated with state- and territorial-level overall NHSPI scores. Each of the six individual domains of the NHSPI (Heath Security Surveillance, Community Planning and Engagement, Incident and Information Management, Health Care Delivery, Countermeasure Management, and Environmental and occupational health) also showed a high degree of variance and poor correlation with COVID-19 mortality.

Keim and Lovallo. (Jan 5, 2021). Validity of the National Health Security Preparedness Index as a Predictor of Excess COVID-19 Mortality. Prehospital and Disaster Medicine. https://doi.org/10.1017/S1049023X20001521