Alliance for Pandemic Preparedness

February 2, 2021

Under What Circumstances Could Vaccination Offset the Harm from a More Transmissible Variant of SARS-COV-2 in NYC Trade-Offs Regarding Prioritization and Speed of Vaccination

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[Pre-print, not peer reviewed] A transmission model calibrated to COVID-19 hospital admissions, ICU admissions, and deaths in New York City suggests that the introduction of a 56% more transmissible variant could triple the peak in infections, hospitalizations, and deaths and more than double cumulative infections, hospitalizations, and deaths by the end of February 2021. For vaccination to offset the variant’s effects, at least 100,000 doses per day by January 15 or 150,000 per day by January 21 would be needed. Prioritization of those aged 65+ years old and essential workers would yield a higher number of lives saved per vaccine dose, though only if vaccine delivery bottlenecks caused by prioritization did not exceed 1/3 of maximum possible vaccination speed.

Kim et al. (Feb 1, 2021). Under What Circumstances Could Vaccination Offset the Harm from a More Transmissible Variant of SARS-COV-2 in NYC Trade-Offs Regarding Prioritization and Speed of Vaccination. Pre-print downloaded Feb 2 from https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2021.01.29.21250710v1