Alliance for Pandemic Preparedness

February 3, 2021

Age Groups That Sustain Resurging COVID-19 Epidemics in the United States

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As of October 2020, SARS-CoV-2 transmission in the US was estimated to be largely driven by individuals between 20-49 years of age, with at least 65 of every 100 infections originating from this age group. Using cell phone mobility data to reconstruct contact patterns, a Bayesian contact-and-infection model was used to analyze age-specific mobility trends for more than 10 million people. The model estimated that until mid-August 2020, the percent contribution to onward spread was estimated to be around 35% from individuals aged 20-34, and 41% from individuals aged 35-49. School reopenings were not found to result in substantial increases in COVID-19 attributable deaths and  adults age 20-49 accounted for an estimated 72% of infections after schools reopened, compared to less than 5% originating from children aged 0-9 and less than 10% from teens aged 10-19.

Monod et al. (Feb 2, 2021). Age Groups That Sustain Resurging COVID-19 Epidemics in the United States. Science. https://doi.org/10.1126/science.abe8372