Alliance for Pandemic Preparedness

February 4, 2021

Mechanistic Transmission Modeling of COVID-19 on the Diamond Princess Cruise Ship Demonstrates the Importance of Aerosol Transmission

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An iterative modeling study simulating the SARS-CoV-2 outbreak on the Diamond Princess cruise ship suggests that airborne transmission via larger respiratory droplets and smaller aerosols likely accounted for over half of disease transmission. From  132 out of over 20,000 model iterations that fit the epidemiological progression of the outbreak within acceptability criteria, the mean estimates of contribution to transmission aboard the ship was 35% for short-range (i.e., droplets and aerosols within 3 meters), 35% for long-range (i.e., aerosols outside of close-range contact), and 30% for fomite transmission modes. The mean estimates of contribution for larger respiratory droplets and smaller aerosols were 41% and 59%, respectively. [EDITORIAL NOTE: this article was summarized as a pre-print in this report on July 16, 2020]

Azimi et al. (Jan 7, 2021). Mechanistic Transmission Modeling of COVID-19 on the Diamond Princess Cruise Ship Demonstrates the Importance of Aerosol Transmission. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences. https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.2015482118