Alliance for Pandemic Preparedness

February 4, 2021

Vaccine Optimization for COVID-19: Who to Vaccinate First?

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An age-stratified mathematical model parameterized with a population with an age distribution based on Washington State suggests that vaccines that are at least 50% effective in preventing SARS-CoV-2 infection could be sufficient to substantially reduce infections and deaths and mitigate the pandemic, assuming roughly 70% vaccination coverage. For low vaccine effectiveness, vaccine allocation to high-risk and older age groups first would optimally minimize deaths, regardless of vaccination coverage. In contrast, vaccines with higher effectiveness would optimally minimize deaths if allocated to high-transmission age groups. [EDITORIAL NOTE: this article was summarized as a pre-print in this report on August 17, 2020]

Matrajt et al. (Feb 3, 2020). Vaccine Optimization for COVID-19: Who to Vaccinate First? Science Advances. https://doi.org/10.1126/sciadv.abf1374