Alliance for Pandemic Preparedness

February 11, 2021

Modeling Effectiveness of Testing Strategies to Prevent COVID-19 in Nursing Homes —United States, 2020

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A model calibrated to US nursing homes suggests that 54% SARS-CoV-2 infections could be prevented by instituting weekly testing with a 2-day turnaround for all staff and residents immediately following detection of an index case (i.e. outbreak testing). Increasing the frequency of testing and reducing the turnaround to daily testing with immediate results could further prevent up to 92% of infections, even if the diagnostic test only had 50% sensitivity. Addition of testing every three days during periods when no cases are detected (i.e. non-outbreak testing) could prevent up to 8% of infections. Combining both outbreak and non-outbreak testing could prevent up to 97% of infections.

See et al. (Feb 10, 2021). Modeling Effectiveness of Testing Strategies to Prevent COVID-19 in Nursing Homes —United States, 2020. Clinical Infectious Diseases. https://doi.org/10.1093/cid/ciab110