February 23, 2021
Association of the Timing of School Closings and Behavioral Changes With the Evolution of the Coronavirus Disease 2019 Pandemic in the US
Category: Article Summary
Topic: Modeling and Prediction
Keywords (Tags): modeling prediction, schools
A model using population-based data from US states suggests that voluntary behavioral changes, such as reducing time at work, could have up to a 3-fold higher impact on reducing COVID-19 incidence compared to school closures. Each day earlier that school closures were implemented was associated with a 3.5% reduction in incidence, whereas each day earlier that behavioral changes were implemented was associated with a 9.3% reduction. Simulations suggest that a 2-week delay in school closures alone could have resulted in 23,000 additional deaths, while a 2-week delay in voluntary behavioral change with school closures could have resulted in 140,000 additional deaths. [EDITORIAL NOTE: The abstract states that associations with reductions in incidence were per day of delay in implementation of closures, but based on the results section, it appears that the correct interpretation should be per day of earlier implementation.]
Zimmerman and Anderson. (Feb 22, 2021). Association of the Timing of School Closings and Behavioral Changes With the Evolution of the Coronavirus Disease 2019 Pandemic in the US. JAMA Pediatrics. https://doi.org/10.1001/jamapediatrics.2020.6371