Alliance for Pandemic Preparedness

February 26, 2021

The Public Health Impact of Delaying a Second Dose of the BNT162b2 or MRNA-1273 COVID-19 Vaccine

Category:

Topic:

Keywords (Tags): ,

  • [Pre-print, not peer-reviewed] An agent-based model estimated the impact of a strategy of delaying a second COVID-19 vaccine dose on cumulative mortality and found that a delayed second dose approach could result in reduced cumulative mortality under certain conditions, particularly in people under 65 years of age. The model was constructed using a simulated population of 100,000 agents based on a real-world US county. It predicted both a reduction in total mortality and cumulative infections at assuming and 80% and 90% first dose efficacy, resulting in absolute cumulative mortality reductions between 26 and 47 deaths per 100,000 population. The model also suggested that a delayed second dose for people under 65 years of age is optimal, assuming a first-dose efficacy of 80% and for vaccination rates at or below 0.3% population per day. The conditions in which these reductions were observed included the first dose efficacy being above 70% and vaccination rates remaining below 1% of the population per day. 

Romero-Brufau et al. (Feb 26, 2021). The Public Health Impact of Delaying a Second Dose of the BNT162b2 or MRNA-1273 COVID-19 Vaccine. Pre-print downloaded Feb 26 from https://doi.org/10.1101/2021.02.23.21252299