Alliance for Pandemic Preparedness

March 1, 2021

Long, Thin Transmission Chains of Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus 2 May Go Undetected for Several Weeks at Low to Moderate Reproduction Numbers: Implications for Containment and Elimination Strategy

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  • Low reproduction numbers can lead to long, thin transmission chains that may span three or more viral generations before a clearly symptomatic case occurs, according to a series of mathematical models developed to assess the impacts of delayed index case identification in the context of SARS-CoV-2. Such chains may be underrepresented in routine surveillance data, which can lead to surveillance “blind spots”. The authors argue that as a result, SARS-CoV-2 case and contact management may be feasible to partially contain transmission, but only in the context of sensitive surveillance systems. 

Killeen et al. (Feb 2021). Long, Thin Transmission Chains of Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus 2 May Go Undetected for Several Weeks at Low to Moderate Reproduction Numbers: Implications for Containment and Elimination Strategy. Infectious Disease Modelling. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.idm.2021.02.002