Alliance for Pandemic Preparedness

March 15, 2021

Modeling the Use of SARS-CoV-2 Vaccination to Safely Relax Non-Pharmaceutical Interventions

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  • [Pre-print, not peer-reviewed] A transmission model suggested that non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) may be safely relaxed in the US 2-9 months after the initial vaccine rollout, and that vaccinated individuals can begin to relax NPIs sooner than unvaccinated individuals, reducing deaths and peak health system burden. If a vaccination rate of 3 million doses/day were achieved, similar to the typical rollout speed of seasonal influenza vaccination, NPIs could begin to be safely relaxed in 2-3 months. With a vaccination rate of 1 million doses/day, a 6-9-month delay would be needed. 

Kraay et al. (Mar 13, 2021). Modeling the Use of SARS-CoV-2 Vaccination to Safely Relax Non-Pharmaceutical Interventions. Pre-print downloaded Mar 15 from https://doi.org/10.1101/2021.03.12.21253481