Alliance for Pandemic Preparedness

March 18, 2021

Estimating the Increased Transmissibility of the B.1.1.7 Strain over Previously Circulating Strains in England Using Fractions of GISAID Sequences and the Distribution of Serial Intervals.

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  • [Pre-print, not peer-reviewed] The SARS-CoV-2 B.1.1.7 strain is suggested to be 40% more transmissible than previously circulating strains, according to a model-based analysis using the time course of the proportion of SARS-CoV-2 infections with the B.1.1.7 variant applied to SARS-CoV-2 genome sequence data and the distribution of serial intervals in England. For mitigation, the authors suggest that contact rates between individuals would need to fall by 29% compared to rates allowable for previously circulating strains.

Piantham and Ito. (Mar 17, 2021). Estimating the Increased Transmissibility of the B.1.1.7 Strain over Previously Circulating Strains in England Using Fractions of GISAID Sequences and the Distribution of Serial Intervals. Pre-print downloaded Mar 18 from https://doi.org/10.1101/2021.03.17.21253775