Alliance for Pandemic Preparedness

March 29, 2021

Projected COVID-19 Epidemic in the United States in the Context of the Effectiveness of a Potential Vaccine and Implications for Social Distancing and Face Mask Use

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  • A study developing a dynamic compartmental model of SARS-CoV-2 transmission in New York, Texas, Florida, and California showed that relaxing social distancing restrictions to pre-pandemic levels without changing current face mask use would lead to new outbreaks, resulting in 0.8–4 million infections and 15,000–240,000 deaths across these four states over the next 12 months. If face mask use were reduced by 50%, a vaccine with 50% effectiveness would require coverage of 55–94% to suppress the epidemic in these states. A vaccine with 80% effectiveness would only require 32–57% coverage to suppress the epidemic. 

Shen et al. (Feb 27, 2021). Projected COVID-19 Epidemic in the United States in the Context of the Effectiveness of a Potential Vaccine and Implications for Social Distancing and Face Mask Use. Vaccine. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.vaccine.2021.02.056