Alliance for Pandemic Preparedness

April 1, 2021

Simulation-Based Estimation of SARS-CoV-2 Infections Associated With School Closures and Community-Based Nonpharmaceutical Interventions in Ontario, Canada

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  • An agent-based transmission model calibrated to the population and COVID-19 case numbers observed in Ontario, Canada suggests that changes in case numbers associated with school reopenings were relatively small compared with the changes associated with non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs). Among 1 million simulated individuals from September to October 2020, incident COVID-19 cases without community-based NPIs were 4,414 when schools remained closed, and 4,740 when they reopened. In contrast, 714 and 780 incident COVID-19 cases with community-based NPIs were expected when schools remained closed and reopened, respectively.  Across all modeled scenarios, school-acquired infections were <5% of total infections. A mean difference of 39,355 cumulative cases was observed between community-based NPI vs no community-based NPI scenarios compared to a mean difference of only 2,040 cases between school closing vs reopening scenarios.

Naimark et al. (Mar 31, 2021). Simulation-Based Estimation of SARS-CoV-2 Infections Associated With School Closures and Community-Based Nonpharmaceutical Interventions in Ontario, Canada. JAMA Network Open. https://doi.org/10.1001/jamanetworkopen.2021.3793