Alliance for Pandemic Preparedness

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Tag: modeling predictive

June 10, 2021

A Model and Predictions for COVID-19 Considering Population Behavior and Vaccination

A SARS-CoV-2 transmission model incorporating social behavioral changes in response to infection rates and vaccination rates suggests that a large increase in the sense of safety and a lowering of precautions due to vaccination to pre-pandemic levels could result in a surge of infections. However, the model predicted that new infections rates could approach zero…

May 13, 2021

Quantifying the Potential for Dominant Spread of SARS-CoV-2 Variant B.1.351 in the United States

[Pre-print, not peer-reviewed] An age-stratified SARS-CoV-2 transmission model calibrated to the US population and current vaccination rates suggests that the SARS-CoV-2 B.1.1.7 variant would likely remain the dominant variant of concern in the US compared to the B.1.351 variant through December 2021, if the B.1.351 variant reduced vaccine efficacy by less than 30% or if…

May 6, 2021

Outbreaks of Covid-19 Variants in Prisons A Mathematical Modeling Analysis of Vaccination and Re-Opening Policies

[Pre-print, not peer-reviewed] A SARS-CoV-2 transmission model calibrated to California state prisons predicts that if a viral variant is introduced in a prison with moderate vaccine coverage, and no baseline immunity that has resumed pre-2020 contact levels, 23-74% of residents could be infected over 200 days. Cumulative infections may be reduced to 2-54% if high…

May 4, 2021

Modeling the Transmission of Covid-19. Journal of Public Health Management and Practice

A transmission model of a pre-K-12 US school setting found that even in the context of low community incidence of SARS-CoV-2, mitigation strategies and contact tracing with a net effectiveness of 27% could result in 75% of the school population being infected within 6 months. The model is based on the CDC COVIDTracer modeling tool….

April 1, 2021

Simulation-Based Estimation of SARS-CoV-2 Infections Associated With School Closures and Community-Based Nonpharmaceutical Interventions in Ontario, Canada

An agent-based transmission model calibrated to the population and COVID-19 case numbers observed in Ontario, Canada suggests that changes in case numbers associated with school reopenings were relatively small compared with the changes associated with non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs). Among 1 million simulated individuals from September to October 2020, incident COVID-19 cases without community-based NPIs were…