April 22, 2021

When Can We Safely Return to Normal A Novel Method for Identifying Safe Levels of NPIs in the Context of COVID-19 Vaccinations

Category: Article Summary

Topic: Modeling and Prediction

Keywords (Tags): modeling prediction, non-pharm interventions

• [Pre-print, not peer-reviewed] A transmission model with vaccination parameters calibrated to the state of Colorado suggests that complete relaxation of non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) within the next year when vaccination uptake is ≤70% still risks exceeding hospitalization thresholds. The model also suggests that decisions to relax NPIs should account for regional heterogeneity in transmission and travel, and that premature relaxation of NPIs restricted to low-density regions could still exceed hospitalization thresholds.

Bianchin et al. (Apr 21, 2021). When Can We Safely Return to Normal A Novel Method for Identifying Safe Levels of NPIs in the Context of COVID-19 Vaccinations. Pre-print downloaded Apr 22 from https://doi.org/10.1101/2021.04.20.21255350