Alliance for Pandemic Preparedness

April 23, 2021

The Global Case-Fatality Rate of COVID-19 Has Been Declining Since May 2020

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  • A retrospective evaluation of WHO SARS-CoV-2 daily situation reports data found that the global cumulative reported case fatality rate (rCFR) reached a peak of 7.2% during the week of April 22-28, 2020 before declining to 2.2% in December 28-31, 2020. The decline in rCFR was not associated with an increase in tests performed. However, county-level models showed that the proportion of the population over age 65 and the prevalence of obesity were significantly associated with higher rCFR. The authors suggest that the observed decline in rCFR may be due to increased rates of infection in young persons, improvements in medical management, and efforts to shield persons at high risk for severe disease. 

Hasan et al. (Apr 21, 2021). The Global Case-Fatality Rate of COVID-19 Has Been Declining Since May 2020. The American Journal of Tropical Medicine and Hygiene. https://doi.org/10.4269/ajtmh.20-1496