Alliance for Pandemic Preparedness

April 29, 2021

Temporal Dynamics of Viral Load and False Negative Rate Influence the Levels of Testing Necessary to Combat COVID-19 Spread

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  • A SARS-CoV-2 transmission model calibrated to a university population with 50% asymptomatic infections suggests that temporal viral load dynamics, which account for viral loads below detectable levels prior to symptom onset, could result in false negative rates of 17-48%. The authors suggest that models that do not account for the effect of this undetectable period on test performance may be recommending less testing than is necessary to stop transmission.

Jarvis and Kelley. (Apr 28, 2021). Temporal Dynamics of Viral Load and False Negative Rate Influence the Levels of Testing Necessary to Combat COVID-19 Spread. Scientific Reports. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-021-88498-9