May 4, 2021

Modeling the Transmission of Covid-19. Journal of Public Health Management and Practice

Category: Article Summary

Topic: Modeling and Prediction

Keywords (Tags): modeling predictive, schools transmission

• A transmission model of a pre-K-12 US school setting found that even in the context of low community incidence of SARS-CoV-2, mitigation strategies and contact tracing with a net effectiveness of 27% could result in 75% of the school population being infected within 6 months. The model is based on the CDC COVIDTracer modeling tool. Improving mitigation strategies to be 69% effective could result in less than 0.9% of the school population being infected. Even in this scenario, substantial importation from a community with high incidence could result in infections in up to 20% of the school population. Across all scenarios of mitigation strategies and community incidence, hospitalizations did not exceed 0.5% of the school population.

Miller et al. (Apr 30, 2021). Modeling the Transmission of Covid-19. Journal of Public Health Management and Practice. https://doi.org/10.1097/PHH.0000000000001373