Alliance for Pandemic Preparedness

May 5, 2021

Modeling of Future COVID-19 Cases, Hospitalizations, and Deaths, by Vaccination Rates and Nonpharmaceutical Intervention Scenarios — United States, April–September 2021

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  • Data from six models forecasting US COVID-19 projections with the 50% more transmissible B.1.1.7 variant up to September 2021 found that across 4 scenarios with varying levels of vaccination and non-pharmaceutical intervention (NPI) use, cases would rise and peak through May 2021 and sharply decline by July 2021. High vaccination scenarios predicted a faster decline. Scenarios with moderate NPI use reduced cases and deaths regardless of vaccination levels, with larger effects under low vaccination scenarios. The largest differences among scenarios was in the cumulative excess percentage of hospitalizations. Differences in deaths were lower because many of the groups at highest risk were already vaccinated prior to the projection window.  Low NPI use and low vaccination scenarios consistently predicted the largest excess percentages in estimated effects across models, suggesting that some states could reach levels of disease similar to those observedin late 2020.

Borchering et al. (May 5, 2021). Modeling of Future COVID-19 Cases, Hospitalizations, and Deaths, by Vaccination Rates and Nonpharmaceutical Intervention Scenarios — United States, April–September 2021. MMWR. Morbidity and Mortality Weekly Report. https://doi.org/10.15585/mmwr.mm7019e3