Alliance for Pandemic Preparedness

May 7, 2021

Lives and Costs Saved by Expanding and Expediting COVID-19  Vaccination



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  • A modeling study of US population dynamics and COVID-19 vaccination scenarios demonstrated that every 1% increase in coverage could avert an average of 876,800 cases, depending on the number of  people already vaccinated, with the greatest gains achieved when increasing vaccine coverage in the  population from 0% to 50%. Additionally, the study demonstrated that increasing vaccination coverage may avert more cases compared to increasing vaccine efficacy. For example, increasing  vaccination coverage from 50% to 70% would prevent 9.2 million cases at a vaccine efficacy of 70%,  while increasing vaccine efficacy from 70% to 90% would prevent 7.1 million cases with 50%  vaccination coverage. The authors note these results emphasize the need to reach high vaccination  coverage levels as soon as possible before the fall/winter to prevent another surge in cases and  deaths. 

Bartsch et al. (May 6, 2021). Lives and Costs Saved by Expanding and Expediting COVID-19  Vaccination. The Journal of Infectious Diseases.