Alliance for Pandemic Preparedness

May 13, 2021

Quantifying the Potential for Dominant Spread of SARS-CoV-2 Variant B.1.351 in the United States

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  • [Pre-print, not peer-reviewed] An age-stratified SARS-CoV-2 transmission model calibrated to the US population and current vaccination rates suggests that the SARS-CoV-2 B.1.1.7 variant would likely remain the dominant variant of concern in the US compared to the B.1.351 variant through December 2021, if the B.1.351 variant reduced vaccine efficacy by less than 30% or if the relative transmissibility of the B.1.351 variant is less than 4% higher than the original strain. However, if the selection advantage of the variant exceeds these thresholds, the variant could become predominant as early as July 2021 and cause a resurgence in cases and hospitalizations. For example, if the B.1351 variant reduced vaccine efficacy by 60% and is 20% more transmissible than the original strain, the authors project a resurgence of 19 cases per 100,000 at the epidemic peak, which could increase to 93 cases per 100,000 if the variant is 50% more transmissible.

Sah et al. (May 12, 2021). Quantifying the Potential for Dominant Spread of SARS-CoV-2 Variant B.1.351 in the United States. Pre-print downloaded May 13 from https://doi.org/10.1101/2021.05.10.21256996