Alliance for Pandemic Preparedness

June 2, 2021

Mechanistic Modeling of SARS-CoV-2 Immune Memory Variants and Vaccines

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  • [Pre-print, not peer-reviewed] The COVID-19 transmission model Covasim, with updated methods accounting for trajectories in immune response, SARS-CoV-2 variants, and vaccine roll-out, found that neutralizing antibodies (NAbs) correlated strongly with infection blocking.  The model suggests Nabs elicited by natural infection may provide more protection than the same level of Nabs elicited by vaccines; however, vaccines typically elicited higher neutralization levels. The number of SARS-CoV-2 infections, symptomatic cases, and severe cases declined rapidly with increasing vaccination coverage, but transmission may persist if the B.1.351 variant is already circulating even under high levels of coverage given its capacity to escape neutralization.

Cohen et al. (June 1, 2021). Mechanistic Modeling of SARS-CoV-2 Immune Memory Variants and Vaccines. Pre-print downloaded Jun 2 from https://doi.org/10.1101/2021.05.31.21258018