June 14, 2021

Effect of Specific Non-Pharmaceutical Intervention Policies on SARS-CoV-2 Transmission in the Counties of the United States

Category: Article Summary

Topic: Modeling and Prediction

Keywords (Tags): modeling prediction, non-pharm interventions

• A modeling study estimating the impact of different non-pharmaceutical intervention (NPI) policies on the SARS-CoV-2 effective reproduction number (Reff) found that NPIs that included closure of schools and leisure activities and nursing home visiting bans were all associated with a median Reff below 1 when combined with either stay at home orders (median Reff 0.97) or face masks (median Reff 0.97). The authors note that the simultaneous implementation of multiple NPI policies makes it difficult to estimate the effect of any one policy, particularly school closures. Lifting restrictions on leisure activities (e.g., restaurants and gyms) was associated with increased Reff, indicating higher transmission risks, while less dramatic changes in Reff were estimated for the removal of stay-at-home orders and medical service suspension. The authors suggest that these results indicate that relaxation of some NPIs will need to be counterbalanced by continuation and/or implementation of others.

Yang et al. (June 2021). Effect of Specific Non-Pharmaceutical Intervention Policies on SARS-CoV-2 Transmission in the Counties of the United States. Nature Communications. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-021-23865-8