Alliance for Pandemic Preparedness

June 14, 2021

Spatial Accessibility Modeling of Vaccine Deserts as Barriers to Controlling SARS-CoV-2 Transmission

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  • [Pre-print, not peer-reviewed] A modeling study showed that the early SARS-CoV-2 vaccine allocation (February 19 and March 17, 2021) in the US created “vaccine deserts” – areas with localized, geographic barriers to vaccine-associated herd immunity – which the authors suggest may impact population-wide efforts to curb SARS-CoV-2 transmission. Using an empirically-parameterized spatial accessibility model that incorporated high-resolution COVID-19 burden and time-willing-to travel for vaccination, the early allocation scheme favored spatial accessibility within US metropolitan areas, in contrast to rural areas that were more likely to have both more vulnerable populations and more vaccine deserts. At the time of the analysis, the authors estimated that about 14% of the US population was living in vaccine deserts. 

Rader et al. (June 12, 2021). Spatial Accessibility Modeling of Vaccine Deserts as Barriers to Controlling SARS-CoV-2 Transmission. Pre-print downloaded Jun 14 from https://doi.org/10.1101/2021.06.09.21252858