Alliance for Pandemic Preparedness

June 10, 2021

A Model and Predictions for COVID-19 Considering Population Behavior and Vaccination

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  • A SARS-CoV-2 transmission model incorporating social behavioral changes in response to infection rates and vaccination rates suggests that a large increase in the sense of safety and a lowering of precautions due to vaccination to pre-pandemic levels could result in a surge of infections. However, the model predicted that new infections rates could approach zero by August 2021 in the US, based on an observed rate of vaccination of 0.3% of the population per day. Alternatively, slower vaccination rollout (0.1%/day) combined with behavioral changes due to a high sense of safety could lead to a substantial rise in cases. The model accurately reproduced COVID-19 case data from April 2020 to January 2021 in 6 US populations, including New York City, California, and Massachusetts.

Usherwood et al. (June 8, 2021). A Model and Predictions for COVID-19 Considering Population Behavior and Vaccination. Scientific Reports. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-021-91514-7