October 14, 2020

Understanding the Los Angeles County Coronavirus Epidemic The Critical Role of Intrahousehold Transmission

Category: Article Summary

Topic: Modeling and Prediction

Keywords (Tags): candidate, public health report, summarize, transmission

• [Preprint, not peer-reviewed] Household structure may play a role in the persistent propagation of COVID-19 epidemic, as suggested by a modeling study describing three phases of the COVID-19 epidemic in Los Angeles County. The model showed that during phase I (March 1-April 4), initial seeding of infection in relatively affluent areas was followed by radial geographic extension to adjoining communities. During Phase II (April 5- July 11), COVID-19 cases continued to rise and concentrated in four geographic foci, reflecting changes in social mobility indicated by smartphone tracking data. The prevalence of households at high risk for intergenerational transmission was strongly correlated with the persistence of continued COVID-19 propagation. During Phase III (July-12-September 19), the geographic concentration was enhanced and the incidence remained as high as the incidence seen at the end of Phase I.

Harris et al. (Oct 14, 2020). Understanding the Los Angeles County Coronavirus Epidemic The Critical Role of Intrahousehold Transmission. Pre-print downloaded Oct 14 from https://doi.org/10.1101/2020.10.11.20211045