November 25, 2020

Effect of Hot Zone Infection Outbreaks on the Dynamics of SARS-CoV-2 Spread in the Community at Large

Category: Article Summary

Topic: Modeling and Prediction

Keywords (Tags): transmission

• [Pre-print; not peer-reviewed] A mathematical modeling study of SARS-CoV-2 transmission described two types of SARS-CoV-2 “hot zones” that may be important in understanding community transmission. The first type of “static hot zone” modeled included nursing homes, prisons, and other places in which the same people repeatedly interact. The model found that even if community transmission is slow, outbreaks in static hot zones can temporarily accelerate initial community virus growth and can be a reservoir enabling viral persistence following implementation of non-pharmaceutical interventions. The second model examined “dynamic hot zones” that repeatedly form and dissolve and involve random individuals from the community (e.g., restaurants, bars, movie theaters). Dynamic hot zones could accelerate the average rate of community transmission, but they did not predict the occurrence of infection plateaus.

Wodarz et al. (Nov 24, 2020). Effect of Hot Zone Infection Outbreaks on the Dynamics of SARS-CoV-2 Spread in the Community at Large. Pre-print downloaded Nov. 25 from https://doi.org/10.1101/2020.11.23.20237172