Alliance for Pandemic Preparedness
December 3, 2020
Awareness-Driven Behavior Changes Can Shift the Shape of Epidemics Away from Peaks and toward Plateaus, Shoulders, and Oscillations
Category: Article Summary
Topic: Modeling and Prediction
Keywords (Tags): modeling prediction
- Weitz et al. show that compared to more established models that predict a symmetric peak in COVID-19 cases and deaths, accounting for awareness-driven behavior in models better fit with the asymmetrical peaks observed in actual COVID-19 fatality data, which typically show a plateau after a peak. The authors suggest that their model highlights the potential role of behavior fatigue in complying with interventions.
Weitz et al. (Dec 1, 2020). Awareness-Driven Behavior Changes Can Shift the Shape of Epidemics Away from Peaks and toward Plateaus, Shoulders, and Oscillations. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences. https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.2009911117