Alliance for Pandemic Preparedness

January 14, 2021

Estimating Internationally Imported Cases during the Early COVID-19 Pandemic

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Combined daily COVID-19 prevalence and flight passenger volume were used to estimate importations of SARS-CoV-2 from China. Researchers estimated that Wuhan was the primary source of global case importation from China in early January, but shifted to 18 other Chinese cities as the source in mid-February, particularly for importations to African destinations. The authors estimate that a total of 10 COVID-19 cases were imported to African locations by the end of February 2020, with the highest number of predicted imports in South Africa, Algeria, and Kenya. 90% of case importations in these locations occurred between January 17 and February 7.

Menkir et al. (Jan 12, 2021). Estimating Internationally Imported Cases during the Early COVID-19 Pandemic. Nature Communications. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-020-20219-8