Alliance for Pandemic Preparedness

March 8, 2021

Economic Benefits of COVID-19 Screening Tests with a Vaccine Rollout

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  • [Pre-print, not peer-reviewed] Implementing a nationwide SARS-CoV-2 testing program in the presence of vaccine distribution was projected to potentially save 20,000 lives and increase the US GDP by 2 to 8 times the incremental cost of the tests, according to an economic model that assumed 75% of the US population would be vaccinated by August 1, 2021. If the program were implemented by February 15 instead of March 1, an estimated additional 10,000 lives could be saved given a program with testing every 10 days (approximately 33 million tests/day), and 15,000 lives for a program with testing every 5 days. The model incorporates initial testing with a low-cost antigen test with confirmatory PCR testing following positive antigen tests.

Atkeson et al. (Mar 5, 2021). Economic Benefits of COVID-19 Screening Tests with a Vaccine Rollout. Pre-print downloaded Mar 8 from https://doi.org/10.1101/2021.03.03.21252815