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December 23, 2020
Early Empirical Assessment of the N501Y Mutant Strains of SARS-CoV-2 in the United Kingdom October to November 2020
[pre-print; not peer-reviewed] Leung at al. estimate that the SARS-CoV-2 lineage that has rapidly become the most dominant in the United Kingdom is 75% more transmissible than the previous lineage, potentially due to a mutation in the receptor binding domain of the spike protein. Their estimates suggest that the R0 for the mutated 501Y strain…
December 15, 2020
Understanding Drivers of COVID-19 Racial Disparities: A Population-Level Analysis of COVID-19 Testing among Black and White Populations
Missouri Department of Health data show that Black populations in the St. Louis and Kansas City regions had lower COVID-19 testing rates per diagnosed cases compared to white populations consistently throughout the pandemic. During March to June 2020, zip codes in the lowest quartile of testing rates, which had higher proportions of Black, uninsured, and…
Impact of Population Growth and Aging on Estimates of Excess U.S. Deaths During the COVID-19 Pandemic, March to August 2020
Accounting for changes in the population age in the four-year period between 2015 and 2019 compared to the period between March and August of 2020 reduced estimates of excess deaths in the US from 301,400 deaths to 218,000 deaths, which substantially increased the contribution of COVID-19-related deaths (173,300 from March to August) to an excess…
Evaluating Intervention Strategies in Controlling COVID-19 Spread in Care Homes: An Agent-Based Model
Routine testing of staff in care homes was shown to be more effective than other infection control interventions, according to a transmission model parameterized to a care home setting in Scotland. Using isolation of symptomatic residents, testing of new admissions, social distancing, and restricted visiting as the reference intervention, the addition of routine testing of…
Individual and Community-Level Risk for COVID-19 Mortality in the United States
Jin et al. developed a model to produce absolute risk estimates for the general adult population across 477 US cities and for the Medicare population aged 65 years and older across 3,113 counties. Incorporating various sociodemographic factors and pre-existing conditions and validated with 54,444 deaths due to COVID-19 from June to October 2020, the model…
Vaccines That Prevent SARS-CoV-2 Transmission May Prevent or Dampen a Spring Wave of COVID-19 Cases and Deaths in 2021
[Pre-print, not peer-reviewed] A model based on King County data shows that if the vaccine efficacy of the Moderna and Pfizer vaccines are primarily driven by complete protection against infection, then prevention of a fourth epidemic wave in Spring 2021 and a reduction of subsequent cases and deaths by 60% is likely to occur, assuming…
COVID-19 Infections Among Healthcare Personnel in the United States Veterans Health Administration, March – August, 2020
Among 131,606 healthcare personnel (HCP) in the US Veterans Health Administration, 5,925 (4.5%) had positive SARS-CoV-2 PCR tests. HCP who were working in hospitals with >15% SARS-CoV-2 positivity among inpatients, as well as nursing staff, HCP who identify as Black or Hispanic, and veterans were at highest risk of SARS-CoV-2 infection. Male sex, age over…
Characteristics, Comorbidities and Survival Analysis of Young Adults Hospitalized with COVID-19 in New York City
In a cohort of young adults aged 18 to 35 years admitted to hospital with COVID-19 in New York City (n=395), 58% of patients had at least one major comorbidity. The mortality among those with at least one major comorbidity was 17% (40 of 229), compared to 9% (15 of 166) among those without a…
Community Prevalence of SARS-CoV-2 in England from April to November, 2020: Results from the ONS Coronavirus Infection Survey
A nationwide serial sampling study in England (n=1.1 million samples from 280,000 individuals) shows that the first wave (April to June) and the first part of the second wave (August to November) were characterized by different risk factors. Having a patient-facing role was a significant factor in the first wave but not in the second,…
Factors Associated with Positive SARS-CoV-2 Test Results in Outpatient Health Facilities and Emergency Departments Among Children and Adolescents Aged <18 Years — Mississippi, September–November 2020
In a case-control study of 397 children and adolescents in Mississippi, in-person school or child care attendance two weeks prior to a SARS-CoV-2 test was not associated with a positive test result (aOR=0.8). Close contact with persons with COVID-19 (aOR=3.2), gatherings with persons outside the household such as social functions (aOR=2.4) and playdates (aOR=3.3), and…
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