Alliance for Pandemic Preparedness

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April 26, 2021

Rapid Vaccination and Early Partial Lockdown Minimizes 4th Waves from Emerging Highly Contagious SARS-CoV-2 Variants

A model calibrated to King County, Washington that includes the increased transmissibility of the B.1.1.7 variant, and local policy changes regarding openings and restrictions, found a new subsequent wave of infections was permitted in all scenarios. However, the new wave had fewer deaths expected compared to the prior wave due to vaccination of people at…


April 12, 2021

Effects of Weather-Related Social Distancing on City-Scale Transmission of Respiratory Viruses: A Retrospective Cohort Study

Residual samples analyzed from patients evaluated for acute respiratory illness in the Seattle metropolitan area in the Seattle Flu Study after unusually high snowfall in Washington State in February 2019 showed that disruption in contact patterns reduced effective contact rates by 16 to 95% and reduced cumulative disease incidence through the remainder of the season…


April 7, 2021

Phylogenetic Estimates of SARS-CoV-2 Introductions into Washington State

[Pre-print, not peer-reviewed] A phylogenetic analysis of 11,422 publicly available whole genome SARS-CoV-2 sequences found a minimum of 287 separate introductions of SARS-CoV-2 into Washington State in samples collected through September 2020.  The majority of introductions into Washington came from a source within the US (61%, range 55-65%) while 39% (range 35-45%) likely came from…


April 1, 2021

Willingness to Receive a COVID-19 Vaccination Among Incarcerated or Detained Persons in Correctional and Detention Facilities — Four States, September–December 2020

The COVID-19 vaccination refusal rate was 45% among 5,110 surveyed residents of three prisons and 13 jails across four states during September to December 2020 (all three prisons and 10 jails in Washington State). The most common reason for vaccination refusal was distrust of health care, correctional, or government personnel or institutions (20%). 10% of…


March 25, 2021

Continued Proportional Age Shift of Confirmed Positive COVID-19 Incidence over Time to Children and Young Adults: Washington State March—August 2020

The age distribution of confirmed COVID-19 cases in Washington State shifted from older age groups to young adults and children between March and August 2020, according to a longitudinal cohort analysis. From March to April, there was a 10% decline in cases among those age 60 years and older and a 20% increase among those…


February 24, 2021

Occupational Exposures and Mitigation Strategies among Homeless Shelter Workers at Risk of COVID-19

[Pre-print, not peer-reviewed] An online survey of 106 workers at homeless shelters in 17 shelter networks in Washington, Massachusetts, Utah, Maryland and Georgia found that 15% of workers reported testing positive for SARS-CoV-2, with 80% believing they were infected at work. The survey was conducted to assess occupational exposures to SARS-CoV-2, characterize job practices, and…


February 22, 2021

Sequelae in Adults at 6 Months After COVID-19 Infection

A longitudinal prospective cohort study of adults with laboratory-confirmed SARS-CoV-2 infection in Washington State, and a concurrent cohort of healthy (control) patients, found that persistent symptoms were reported up to 9 months after initial infection by 17 of 64 patients (27%) aged 18 to 39 years, 25 of 83 patients (30%) aged 40 to 64…


Higher SARS-CoV-2 Infection Rate in Pregnant Patients

The SARS-CoV-2 infection rate among pregnant individuals in Washington State (13.9/1,000 deliveries) was 70% higher than the rate among similarly-aged adults, which was not completely explained by universal screening at delivery. 240 pregnant patients with PCR-confirmed SARS-CoV-2 infection were identified from March 1-June 3, 2020, and the proportion of cases in pregnancy among most ethnic…


February 4, 2021

Rapid Vaccination and Early Reactive Partial Lockdown Will Minimize Deaths from Emerging Highly Contagious SARS-CoV-2 Variants

A mathematical model calibrated to King County, Washington (but generalizable across states) suggests that across all scenarios of varying vaccine efficacy, rapid vaccination (roughly 8,000 people per day) and lower case thresholds for triggering and relaxing partial lockdown are the two most critical variables that predict lower total numbers of COVID-19 infections, hospitalizations, and deaths….


Dynamics of Neutralizing Antibody Titers in the Months After Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus 2 Infection

Neutralizing antibody titers against SARS-CoV-2 declined by an average of 4-fold after 4 months post-symptom onset in a cohort of 32 individuals recovering from SARS-CoV-2 infection. The authors conclude that the dynamics of the antibody response to SARS-CoV-2 in the first several months after infection are consistent with what would be expected based on knowledge…



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