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Topic: Geographic Spread
January 15, 2021
Emergence of SARS-CoV-2 B.1.1.7 Lineage — United States, December 29, 2020–January 12, 2021. MMWR
A more highly transmissible variant of SARS-CoV-2, lineage B.1.1.7, has been confirmed to have caused 76 cases in at least 10 states in the US as of January 13, 2021. Models suggest that this variant has potential to drive a new phase of exponential growth in cases in the US, and that even if vaccination…
January 14, 2021
Estimating Internationally Imported Cases during the Early COVID-19 Pandemic
Combined daily COVID-19 prevalence and flight passenger volume were used to estimate importations of SARS-CoV-2 from China. Researchers estimated that Wuhan was the primary source of global case importation from China in early January, but shifted to 18 other Chinese cities as the source in mid-February, particularly for importations to African destinations. The authors estimate…
Earliest Detection to Date of SARS-CoV-2 in Florida: Identification Together with Influenza Virus on the Main Entry Door of a University Building, February 2020
A sample collected from a door handle on February 21, 2020 in an influenza surveillance study in Florida tested positive for SARS-CoV-2 RNA, despite the first official case of COVID-19 in the state not being reported until March 1, 2020. Sequence analysis found that the Florida SARS-CoV-2 strain, UF-11, was identical to strains identified in…
January 8, 2021
Opening of Large Institutions of Higher Education and County-Level COVID-19 Incidence — United States, July 6–September 17, 2020
US counties with large colleges or universities operating with remote instruction (n=22) experienced an 18% decrease in incidence of SARS-CoV-2, while university counties with in-person instruction (n=79) experienced a 56% increase in incidence, comparing the 21-day periods before and after classes started. Counties without large colleges or universities (n=3,009) experienced a 6% decrease in incidence…
December 23, 2020
Early Empirical Assessment of the N501Y Mutant Strains of SARS-CoV-2 in the United Kingdom October to November 2020
[pre-print; not peer-reviewed] Leung at al. estimate that the SARS-CoV-2 lineage that has rapidly become the most dominant in the United Kingdom is 75% more transmissible than the previous lineage, potentially due to a mutation in the receptor binding domain of the spike protein. Their estimates suggest that the R0 for the mutated 501Y strain…
December 8, 2020
Seroprevalence of SARS-CoV-2 Antibodies in Seattle Washington October 2019-April 2020
[Pre-print, not peer reviewed] Residual clinical samples from 763 Seattle-area adults collected during March 5-April 1, 2020 show a seroprevalence of antibodies to SARS-CoV-2 of 1.2%, which was 11 times greater than the number of confirmed cases in King County as of April 1. The authors note, however, that participant sampling in the study may…
December 1, 2020
Serologic Testing of U.S. Blood Donations to Identify SARS-CoV-2-Reactive Antibodies: December 2019-January 2020
Analysis of archived samples from routine Red Cross blood donations collected December 13, 2019 to January 17, 2020 from donors in nine states, including Washington, suggests SARS-CoV-2 was introduced in the US prior to the first identified case in January 19, 2020. Among 7,389 samples, 106 contained antibodies reactive to the SARS-CoV-2 spike protein and…
November 30, 2020
COVID-19 Growth in Rural versus Urban Counties with Major Universities at the Start of the 2020 Academic Year
[Pre-print, not peer-reviewed] An assessment of COVID-19 growth in counties with universities showed that small metro and non-metro counties had a dramatic infection spike near the beginning of the semester (weeks 2-6) and infection growth remained significantly higher than their large and medium metro counterparts for the study duration (through September 27, 2020). The authors…
November 24, 2020
SARS-CoV-2 Seroprevalence Worldwide: A Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis
A pooled estimate of global SARS-CoV-2 seroprevalence was 3.4% in a systematic review and meta-analysis (n=47 studies) of data from 23 countries published through August 2020. Seroprevalence in general population studies varied from 0.4% to 22%. The lowest regional seroprevalence was observed in South America (1.5%), while the highest was in Northern Europe (5%). The…
November 19, 2020
Predicting Spatial and Temporal Responses to Non-Pharmaceutical Interventions on COVID-19 Growth Rates across 58 Counties in New York State: A Prospective Event-Based Modeling Study on County-Level Sociological Predictors
Analysis of county-level predictors over 16 time points in New York State showed that as COVID-19 incidence peaked in March and declined through June 2020, areas with the highest infection growth rates shifted from the New York metropolitan areas toward the western and northern areas. Counties with higher proportions of people age 45+ years, people…
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