Result for
Topic: Modeling and Prediction
September 1, 2020
The Urgent Need for Phased University Reopenings to Mitigate the Spread of COVID-19 and Conserve Institutional Resources A Modeling Study
[Pre-print, not peer reviewed] A modeling study indicates that phased reopening of college campuses (one-third of student population returning to campus each month) coupled with pre-arrival SARS-CoV-2 testing would reduce peak of daily infections compared to pre-arrival testing without phased reopening or no intervention at all. Phased reopening with pre-arrival testing could reduce the peak…
August 27, 2020
Population-Scale Longitudinal Mapping of COVID-19 Symptoms, Behaviour and Testing
How We Feel (http://www.howwefeel.org), a web and mobile application, collected 3.6 million longitudinal self-reported survey responses on health, behavior related to the COVID-19 pandemic, and demographics from over 500,000 users across all 50 US states and several US territories (83% female, 76% white) during April 2 – May 12, 2020. Among 3,829 users who used…
Particle Modeling of the Spreading of Coronavirus Disease (COVID-19)
De-Leon and Pederiva present a kinetic Monte Carlo algorithm that shows that a cyclic schedule of no-restrictions/lockdowns that includes at least ten days of lockdown for each cycle can help control SARS-CoV-2 transmission. In particular, this model reduces the infection rate when accompanied by social distancing and complete isolation of symptomatic patients. The comparison between…
August 26, 2020
SARS-CoV-2 Phylodynamics Differentiates the Effectiveness of Non-Pharmaceutical Interventions
[pre-print, not peer-reviewed] By combining phylogenetic data of 5,198 SARS-CoV-2 genomes with the timing of non-pharmaceutical interventions in 57 countries, Rasigade et al. found that home containment and education lockdown had the largest independent impacts on preventing transmission and were predicted to reduce the reproduction number by 35% and 26%, respectively. However, in contexts with…
August 25, 2020
Impacts of K-12 School Reopening on the COVID-19 Epidemic in Indiana USA
[pre-print, not peer-reviewed] Espana et al. conducted a modeling study with varying degrees of school operating capacity and face-mask adherence to estimate the impact of a K-12 school reopening in Indiana on SARS-CoV-2 transmission. Their model indicated that, from August 24 to December 31, operating schools with high face-mask adherence would result in 3-times the…
August 24, 2020
A Modelling Framework to Assess the Likely Effectiveness of Facemasks in Combination with ‘Lock-down’ in Managing the COVID-19 Pandemic
Stutt et al. report modeling results that show that when facemasks are used universally, Re can be reduced below one without the use of further mandated lockdowns or other non-pharmaceutical interventions. They conclude that lockdowns in combination with universal facemask use could substantially reduce Re and prevent subsequent waves of disease transmission. Stutt et al….
Quarantine and Testing Strategies in Contact Tracing for SARS-CoV-2
[pre-print, not peer-reviewed] Modeling by Quilty et al. found that for known contacts of COVID-19 cases, a quarantine period of at least ten days, combined with a PCR test on day nine, may yield similar results to a 14-day quarantine period in terms of averted transmission potential from secondary cases. Fourteen days of quarantine averted…
Modeling Contact Tracing Strategies for COVID-19 in the Context of Relaxed Physical Distancing Measures
Bilinski et al. developed a model to examine the potential for contact tracing to reduce the spread of SARS-CoV-2 and tested scenarios including relaxation of physical distancing measures. When all individuals identified through contact tracing were tested and isolation and quarantine measures were at 90% efficacy, Rt was reduced by 46%. When community detection of…
August 21, 2020
Age Could Be Driving Variable SARS-CoV-2 Epidemic Trajectories Worldwide
• A model incorporating 159 countries suggests that differences in the population age distributions across regions may substantially affect COVID-19 pandemic trajectories, with countries with larger adult populations potentially experiencing more severe and rapid transmission of COVID-19 than countries with younger populations. In the African Region (median age: 18.9 years), the authors estimated a median…
August 19, 2020
Comparison of Molecular Testing Strategies for COVID-19 Control: A Mathematical Modelling Study
Mathematical modeling by Grassly et al. indicates optimal SARS-CoV-2 testing strategies would include regular screening of high-risk groups such as health-care and social-care workers during periods of sustained transmission and testing of people with COVID-19 symptoms and tracing and quarantining their contacts. Test and trace requires high coverage and rapid testing and contact tracing to be effective. Testing alone is unlikely to bring the viral reproductive number below 1…
Previous page Next page