Result for
Topic: Modeling and Prediction
September 15, 2020
Estimation of COVID-19 Basic Reproduction Ratio in a Large Urban Jail in the United States
In an SEIR model of a COVID-10 outbreak in a large US jail system, Puglisi et al. found that within 30 days, 6% of prisoners and 8% of staff will have symptomatic infections, predicting 5,695 cases, among whom there would be 3,388 symptomatic infections, 474 hospitalizations, and 34 deaths. Puglisi et al. (Sept 9, 2020)….
Simulating Phase Transitions and Control Measures for Network Epidemics Caused by Infections with Presymptomatic, Asymptomatic, and Symptomatic Stages
In a model considering asymptomatic, presymptomatic, and symptomatic transmission, the level of viral shedding was found to have the greatest impact on the total number of infections, followed by the probability of social distancing and individually initiated social isolation given a threshold number of infected contacts. Braun et al. (Sept 10, 2020). Simulating Phase Transitions…
September 14, 2020
High COVID-19 Transmission Potential Associated with Re-Opening Universities Can Be Mitigated with Layered Interventions
[Preprint, not peer-reviewed] A modeling study of university reopening in the UK compared transmission dynamics under different assumptions about the infectiousness of asymptomatic patients. Assuming an infectious period of 5 days, the authors report that if asymptomatic cases are 50% as infectious as symptomatic cases, then 20% undergraduates would be infected. If asymptomatic cases are…
The Impact of Digital Contact Tracing on the SARS-CoV-2 Pandemic – a Comprehensive Modelling Study
[Preprint, not peer-reviewed] A modeling study estimated that implementing a digital contact tracing system (DCT) combined with other interventions (social distancing and/or random testing) could effectively reduce the transmission of SARS-CoV-2 by pushing R0 from above 3 to below 1 in a scenario where 40% of people infected with SARS-CoV-2 were asymptomatic. At least 60%…
September 8, 2020
Frequency and Accuracy of Proactive Testing for COVID-19
[Pre-print, not peer-reviewed]In the context of outbreak control on university campuses, Bergstrom et al. modeled the potential trade-offs of testing accuracy, frequency, and delay of results and found that even with a false negative rate of 30%, testing every second day can reduce R0 from 2.5 to below 1 given a one day delay of…
Local Lockdowns Outperform Global Lockdown on the Far Side of the COVID-19 Epidemic Curve
Based on a modeling study based on Ontario, Canada, enacting lockdown policies at the county level would cause significantly fewer person-days of closure compared to enacting them at the province level, even under the same trigger threshold for cases and in a scenario with high intercounty travel. The authors conclude that these findings suggest local…
College Campuses and COVID-19 Mitigation Clinical and Economic Value
[Pre-print, not peer-reviewed] Cost modeling indicates that implementing extensive social distancing with masks on college campuses could prevent up to 87% of COVID-19 cases at a cost of $168 per case prevented. Adding lab testing of asymptomatic students every 3 days would prevent up to 96% of cases, but would raise the cost to $8,300…
September 2, 2020
Analyzing Inherent Biases in SARS-CoV-2 PCR and Serological Epidemiologic Metrics
[Preprint, not peer reviewed] A modeling study found that the observed peak in PCR-detected SARS-CoV-2 infections can follow the peak of true infection incidence due to prolonged shedding of SARS-CoV-2 by approximately ten days in a scenario with an R0 of 1.6 versus 5 days when R0 is 3. Half of those who tested positive…
Potential Community and Campus Covid-19 Outcomes Under University and College Reopening Scenarios
[Preprint, not peer reviewed] A modeling study of various US college and university reopening plans (various fully open, hybrid, and fully virtual approaches) shows common reopening strategies could reduce student SARS-CoV-2 infections by 24%-26% and deaths by 36%-50%. Perfect testing and immediate quarantining of all students on arrival to campus at the start of term…
Modeling the Combined Effect of Digital Exposure Notification and Non-Pharmaceutical Interventions on the COVID-19 Epidemic in Washington State
[Preprint, not peer reviewed] A modeling study based on three counties in Washington state predicts that if 15% of the population participates a in digital exposure notification system, it could reduce SARS-CoV-2 infections by 8% and COVID-19 related deaths by 6%. The authors conclude that this approach could complement traditional contact tracing. Abueg et al….
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