Result for
Topic: Modeling and Prediction
July 13, 2020
A Minimal Model for Household Effects in Epidemics
[pre-print, not peer-reviewed] Huber et al. present a mathematical model that reflects the effect of social distancing interventions on contact structures, allowing for fast transmission within households and slow transmission between households. They show that epidemic growth depends on household size, but this effect is attenuated beyond a threshold (following a square root law), suggesting that establishment of larger households (i.e., social circles) may be preferred to re-integration…
Estimating the Effect of Social Distancing Interventions on COVID-19 in the United States
[pre-print, not peer-reviewed] Modeling of state-level interventions to control COVID-19 indicates that only school closures and lockdowns have a non-trivial impact on effective reproductive numbers. Olney et al. use an established semi-mechanistic Bayesian hierarchical model to estimate the effect of state-level interventions on SARS-CoV-2 transmission in the US. Infection fatality is parameterized for each state using…
July 10, 2020
Relative Contributions of Transmission Routes for COVID-19 among Healthcare Personnel Providing Patient Care
Using a quantitative microbial risk assessment and exposure model, Jones found that droplet and inhalation transmission routes contributed to 35% and 57% of the probability of infection among healthcare workers without PPE, respectively. Direct contact accounted for only 8% of transmissions. Jones. (July 9, 2020). Relative Contributions of Transmission Routes for COVID-19 among Healthcare Personnel Providing Patient Care. Journal…
July 8, 2020
Estimating the Establishment of Local Transmission and the Cryptic Phase of the COVID-19 Pandemic in the USA
[Preprint, not peer-reviewed] Davis et al. estimated that there was widespread community transmission of SARS-CoV-2 in the United States by February, 2020. Their modeling suggests that international travel could have seeded outbreaks in West and East Coast metropolitan areas as early as December, 2019. However, for most states, domestic travel contributed to the largest proportion of imported infections. Davis et…
Optimising Benefits of Testing Key Workers for Infection with SARS-CoV-2: A Mathematical Modelling Analysis
Sandmann et al. modeled the impact of various testing strategies on the risk of workplace transmission and absences for essential workers: (i) testing workers with SARS-CoV-2-like symptoms who self-isolated, (ii) testing asymptomatic workers in household quarantine, and (iii) universal testing. Universal testing of staff had the largest reduction per test in workplace transmission, while only testing asymptomatic…
Reopening Universities during the COVID-19 Pandemic: A Testing Strategy to Minimize Active Cases and Delay Outbreaks
[Preprint, not peer-reviewed] Rennert et al. evaluated the impact of pre-semester SARS-CoV-2 testing on reducing the incidence of cases in a university setting. Although they found that pre-semester testing would delay the onset of the epidemic peak from 17 to 40 days, it would not reduce the overall outbreak size without further prevention strategies. Rennert et…
The Implications of Silent Transmission for the Control of COVID-19 Outbreaks
Moghadas et al. used agentbased modeling to quantify the number of transmissions attributable to asymptomatic and pre-symptomatic SARS-CoV-3 infections. Empirical studies suggest that the proportion of asymptomatic cases range from 18 to 31%. At the lower end, when 18% of infections are asymptomatic, they estimated that pre-symptomatic cases account for 48% of transmissions and asymptomatic infections account for 3% of transmissions. These…
Could Masks Curtail the Post-Lockdown Resurgence of COVID-19 in the US
[Preprint, not peer-reviewed] Ngonghala et al. assessed if the universal use of face masks could halt a post-lockdown resurgence of COVID-19 cases for the entire U.S., as well as within the states of Arizona, Florida, and New York. Assuming that face masks reduce the probability of transmission by 50%, the authors found that 75% compliance with universal masking laws…
July 7, 2020
Modeling the role of respiratory droplets in Covid-19 type pandemics.
Chaudhuri at al. construct a macro-level model of the growth rate of the infected population and a micro-level model of the physics of respiratory droplets, combining the two with theoretical knowledge to create a tool that clarifies the role of environmental factors in COVID-19 spread. They write that, with extreme caution, the combined models could be used to estimate…
Mobility restrictions for the control of epidemics: When do they work?
To determine when mobility restrictions reduce the size of an epidemic, Espinoza et al. use a model of disease transmission within and between economically heterogeneous locally connected communities, one with a low-risk, low-density population and the other with a high-risk, high-density population. Unrestricted mobility between the two communities increases the number of secondary cases in the…
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