Result for
Topic: Modeling and Prediction
July 6, 2020
Modeling, State Estimation, and Optimal Control for the US COVID-19 Outbreak
Tsay et al. reported a novel, optimization-based decision-making framework for managing the COVID-19 outbreak in the US. This includes modeling the dynamics of affected populations, estimating the model parameters and hidden states from data, and an optimal control strategy for sequencing social distancing and testing events such that the number of infections is minimized. Results show…
Chopping the Tail: How Preventing Superspreading Can Help to Maintain COVID-19 Control
[Preprint, not peer-reviewed] An SEIR model for the COVID-19 epidemic that incorporates time-varying impacts of non-pharmaceutical interventions in Los Angeles and Santa Clara County, Seattle, Miami, and Atlanta shows that the first-wave interventions in mid-March, 2020 of eliminating large social gatherings, mandated mask-wearing and physical distancing have affected the heterogeneity in transmission rates by eliminating high-risk events. Kain et al. (July 3, 2020). Chopping the Tail: How Preventing…
July 2, 2020
The Impact of Contact Tracing and Household Bubbles on Deconfinement Strategies for COVID-19 an Individual-Based Modelling Study
[pre-print, not peer reviewed] Willem et al. adapted an individual-based model that accounts for repetitive leisure contacts in extended household settings (so called “household bubbles”) to simulate interactions between the 11 million inhabitants of Belgium at the level of households, workplaces, schools and communities. They found that household bubbles have the potential to reduce the number of COVID-19 hospital admissions by…
Low-Impact Social Distancing Interventions to Mitigate Local Epidemics of SARS-CoV-2
[pre-print, not peer reviewed] Jackson estimated the impact of interventions chosen for their minimal disruption to economic and social activity on mitigating the SARS-CoV-2 epidemic in King County, Washington. Interventions considered were (a) encouraging telecommuting; (b) reducing contacts with seniors and nursing home residents; (c) modest reductions to contacts outside of the home; (d) encouraging self-isolation of persons with COVID-19 symptoms; (e) rapid testing and household quarantining. No…
June 30, 2020
A Modelling Study for Designing a Multi-Layered Surveillance Approach to Detect the Potential Resurgence of SARS-CoV-2
[pre-print, not peer-reviewed] Liu et al. explored RT-PCR testing–based surveillance strategies for COVID-19 containment in Beijing, China. This study assumed that all healthcare workers, hospital patients, and community members with clinical illness would be captured either at fever clinics or in respiratory departments in hospitals. Fever clinics are telephone-based triage systems combined with drive-through testing that…
June 29, 2020
General Model for COVID-19 Spreading with Consideration of Intercity Migration, Insufficient Testing and Active Intervention: Application to Study of Pandemic Progression in Japan and USA
[pre-print, not peer-reviewed] Zhan et al. developed a Susceptible-Exposed-Infected-Confirmed-Recovered model that incorporates both intercity travel and insufficient testing to predict the spread of COVID-19 in the US and Japan, using data through March 20. The authors found that the ratio of detected to undetected cases may be as high as 1:5 in the US and that…
How and When to End the COVID-19 Lockdown: An Optimization Approach
Rawson et al. applied an optimal control framework to an adapted SEIR model framework to evaluate the efficacy of lockdown release strategies in the UK. They found simultaneous release of the entire population to be a high-risk strategy, with gradual re-integration preferred. Among gradual re-integration strategies, releasing approximately half the population 2-4 weeks after the end of the initial…
June 26, 2020
Contact Tracing Evaluation for COVID-19 Transmission during the Reopening Phase in a Rural College Town
[pre-print, not peer-reviewed] Moon and Scoglio built an individual-based contact network model and a compartmental transmission model for COVID-19. They coupled these models to assess the effectiveness of contact tracing for COVID-19 control under four different re-opening strategies ranging from 0% to 75% of contacts traced. They found tracing 20% of contacts is enough to reduce the…
Impact of Lockdown on the Epidemic Dynamics of COVID-19 in France
Roques et al. modeled the COVID-19 epidemic in France, and estimated that lockdown reduced the effective reproductive number by a factor of 7 (Re = 0.47, 95%CI 0.45, 0.50), and that only 3.7% of the population (95%CI 3.0%, 4.8%) would be infected by the beginning of May, far below the herd immunity threshold. Roques et al. (June 5, 2020). Impact of Lockdown on the…
June 25, 2020
Modeling Quarantine during Epidemics and Mass-Testing Using Drones
Sedov et al. incorporate quarantining into a traditional Susceptible-Infected-Recovered (SIR) model and explore the potential of using drones to deliver tests. Using a medium-sized city (about 100,000 people) in Sweden, the investigators found that the model predicts a substantial decrease in peak number of infected people without increasing the duration of the epidemic. The number of days needed to collect tests…
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